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Pastimes : Crazy Fools Chasing Crazy CyberNews
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To: ms.smartest.person who wrote (2315)1/2/2003 11:41:53 AM
From: Crossy  Read Replies (1) of 5140
 
Merryfield,
congrats to your forum. I like it. Let me answer your "headings" with my opinion..

1) Bear Market rally end ? Don't know I expect a SIDEWAYS TREND with sector rotation for the coming months. It should end & converge to a strong breakout if IRAK is attacked (aka Operation Desert Storm)

2) Will Gold & Silver Rise .. IMHO yes but not much. I think it's akin to monetary expansion. As long as M2 and M3 are expanding like now, Gold should rise. Notice that Gold isn't up much vs. the Euro or a basket of currencies. This points more to a dollar revaluation than an endogenous rise in commodity prices.. I think Greenspan is forcing the nutty European Central Bankers to .. EASE .. and rightly so. Their actions have prolongued the global agony.

3) I absolutely concur with your Telecom thoughts, in fact I saved the article you posted on my machine.. I studied some post Bankruptcy situations in telecom and suddenly realized that the remainder of the CLEC sector will consolidate and will have QUITE GOOD EARNINGS IMHO. How did I arrive at this ? I looked at their Gross Margin. It's significant now. Companies like MCLD, TALK and also MPOW.OB are showing gross margins in EXCESS of 40%. There's value here I think..

I will post some telecom microeconomic links on my thread - started yesterday by linking to the great webpresence of Stern biz school Professor Nicholas Economides..

all the best
CROSSY
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