I think the odds of an attack are far greater than 50%, perhaps more like 80%. Bush has already committed a large and increasing number of troops for that purpose, he has garnered agreements with the Saudi's to allow the use of U.S. bases in their country for the attack. Military exercises are ongoing and Bush has several times publicly expressed a 'lack of hope' that war can be avoided.
I think Bush should attack Iraq, but he has not yet made the strongest case available to him why he should do so, and this concerns me. He says he knows Iraq has WMD, and apparently he is holding his cards close to his breast for good reason, but as time ticks onward and North Korea (which has openly told us it is developing WMD) pushes forward with its plans apparently unchecked by America, Bush is looking a bit, just a wee bit, in something of a pickle.
I am also concerned that America will keep playing games with our fighting people. This sort of thing is going to get us into yet another situation where, despite our military superiority, we will hand our own asses to ourselves. If we are going to fight, then we should fight. And when we make mistakes we should study them, make apologies/corrections, and then re-enter the fight. But to put men in hostile situations that demand the utmost in flexibility, and then condemn them when things go awry, especially since they have no apparent history of insubordination, is to my mind just asking for defeat.
Umbach's attorney, David L. Beck, a former pilot, judge advocate and military judge in the Marine Corps, said the Air Force had failed to adequately brief the pilots for their mission.
"If they really were looking at contributing factors, then they have to answer these questions: Why are you doing live-fire training at night in a combat zone? . . . Why were the pilots not told? Why did [air controllers] not know it was planned? If [the pilots] had been briefed, [the accident] would not have happened. That's the only contributing factor that is not subject to debate."
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