Not going to happen
By Raoul Le Blond
computerworld.com.my
OK, December is the time of year when editors in the IT magazine world trot out that old and trusted artifice: the roundup of trends and predictions of technologies, hardware and software to watch.
This year, I think I'll do my colleagues at Computerworld Malaysia a favour and turn the nutshell on its head and give a list of 10 IT anti-predictions: that is, trends that are not going to happen or take off in 2003, or for that matter, anytime soon.
1. As a Mac user like my good friend the Tech Terror, I spout sacrilege. Apple's much-touted "Switch" campaign where Windows users cross the platform divide and move to embrace Mac OS X will not happen. Sorry, Steve, but until you bring the crunchy fruit computer into double figures in terms of PC market share, don't call me. It's been over two years since OS X has been around and I still can't find enough applications that support it, nor can I buy scanners and printers without worrying first whether manufacturers are making the drivers that support these devices. And banking on improved networking with Windows machines to sell your OS is plain dumb. A computer that works with Windows? Why don't I just buy a PC instead? And finally, there's what I like to call my Imbi Plaza Index. The Mac section of the lovable pirate software shops offer maybe a dozen apps, in comparison to the thousands of Windows apps and games available. I'm not promoting piracy. But piracy is the sincerest form of flattery. Take heed.
2. The Tablet PC. Kudos to Microsoft for the Windows XP Tablet PC Edition with its excellent handwriting recognition algorithms, which offer users true digital paper and note taking capabilities. Brickbats to the manufacturers that have so far embraced the technology. The Tablet PCs I see on the market to date are woeful. Many are simply too large and bulky to be used comfortably, while most of the designs defy logic. Some manufacturers opt for a detachable tablet with a docking station purchased separately, while still others go for a laptop-tablet combi that cannot be separated from each other. What's going on? Is it too difficult to ask for a tablet that is built into a regular laptop?
3. Multimedia messaging. Three years of talk, and still no delivery. I see the handphones with webcams built into them, in the vain hope that people will exchange these photos via MMS. About the most exciting news I have heard about them is that they are banned from gyms in Singapore because they can be used to shoot in flagrante delictio photos in locker rooms. Still other users complain that the phones are too large. Can you say form factor?
4. The death of spam. I signed up with Microsoft for a .NET Passport and Hotmail account recently so that I could use MSN Messenger (I have no plans to use the Hotmail account to send e-mail). Within 24 hours, my mailbox had filled with 10 messages, every single one of them spam. All the more incredible considering I've not posted my new Hotmail address to a single third-party website where the address could have been hijacked. Want to stop spam? Use snail mail instead. Spam is just going to get worse and worse.
5. Better customer service through Customer Relationship Management. It's been some years since the CRM "revolution" and companies show no signs of stopping their spending on the technology. But are we being better served as a result? I've got more forms to fill online, more questions to answer, more spam in my mailbox (see Prediction 4 above) and I'm often told that the information I require is on the vendor's website and could I help myself? I see, so I pay you to serve myself? That's like paying a service charge in a restaurant where I have to cook the meal myself. PC World, a sister IDG publication in the US, ran a survey of users' opinion about IT customer service and most PC brand users actually gave their vendors worse marks over a year ago when the survey was first conducted. Get a clue, people. Save the CRM budget for R&D. We'll pay for better products.
6. Better supply chain management. Not gonna happen any time this century in Asia until manufacturers realise that the weakest link in the chain is where it meets the customer. The real world expression of this is when you go into a store, ask for your favourite brand of coffee and the sales clerk looks at you blankly, going, "Out of stock." And when you ask when it is going to be in stock again, you can almost fill in the answer yourself: "No idea." In-store fulfilment, reseller and supplier synchronisation and logistics need a lot of work. The problem is that many companies spend millions on improving already efficient internal supply chains, while neglecting to integrate partners, suppliers and resellers.
7. Copy protected music. This whole year we have been bombarded with statistics about how music sales are dipping and online music piracy is Public Enemy Number One. Rubbish, rubbish, rubbish. Look at the music charts of Europe, the United Kingdom and the US—all leading centres of music production. Who's on top? Elvis. He's dead. The Rolling Stones. They're walking dead. Sinead O'Connor! People are not buying music because there is little out there that is worth buying so they are turning to artistes of the past. And even when they want to buy contemporaneous music, the cost has become ridiculous. Explain to me why a Lord of the Rings three-volume VCD costs less than a Best of Inane Dance Hits 2002 compilation? Music production, pricing and marketing has gone awry.
8. End of software piracy. Ditto prediction 7.
9. Wireless networking. 802.11, Bluetooth. Despite some impressive inroads to business, I've yet to see wireless computing, networking and Internet surfing go mainstream. While we are seeing more wireless hotspot rollouts, it will be some time before the public at large embraces the idea of always-on, everywhere networking and computing. The cost of wireless enabled devices is one issue, but content and true value-added services is another. Till then, expect GPRS and the handphone to be the public information wireless access device of choice for the masses.
10. An end to year-end technology punditry and predictions? Not gonna happen, sorry!
Raoul Le Blond (raoul@idg.com.sg) is with IDG Singapore and wishes all our readers Happy Holidays for the coming festive season. |
