Technical Analysis: A Big Day, But What Does It Mean?
by Paul Shread
internetstockreport.com
January 2, 2003 - A powerful rally today, with the most interesting aspect the 90% upside volume on the NYSE. Coming almost three months off the October lows and four months after the last 90% downside day, today's 90% upside day could be more a sign of too much bullish sentiment than the start of a good rally, and the +1400 TICK and the big drop in the VIX (see first chart below) lend some support to that observation. That said, we remain in a seasonally positive period for another week or two, so more upside is not out of the question. The Dow (second chart below) has support at 8550, 8500 and 8450, and resistance at 8700 and 8750-8800. The S&P (third chart) has resistance at 915 and 925, and support at 900 and 890. The Nasdaq (fourth chart) has resistance at 1390-1400 and 1426, and support at 1360.
One sign of the end of a major bear market is marked by one or more "90% Down days", followed, within 16 days, either by a "90% Up day", or by two back-to-back "80% Up days". A "90% Down day" is defined as a trading day on which the down volume on the NYSE is 90% (or more) of the total volume and the total number of points lost on all issues traded on the NYSE on that day is 90% (or more) of the total sum of all points gained and lost on that day on the NYSE. Similarly, a 90% Up day is a trading day on which the up volume on the NYSE is 90% (or more) of all volume and the total number of points gained is 90% (or more) of the sum of all points gained and lost in all issues trading on the NYSE on that day.
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