Tom; Who could refuse to venture a guess on this.
I'll out do the average pundit ( I think they
are calling for about 8% to 10% up)
I'll call the NDX up 18.5% from Jan 1st to Dec 31st.
The S&P 500 up 12.5 % the Dow up 14 %..
Tahts more bullish than most of my posts would have
me, so let me clear it up some.
While I think we have a good chance of ending up
that much, if I were what I call truly bullish
about it I would of course be buying hand over
fist instead of waiting for a another pull back.
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And while I see that much up as having a good chance, I don't rule out that we could be down, and down
a lot too.
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From September 24th until now I'm up over 70%,
if we make another 14 to 18% because of what
I'm holding I will expect to be up almost
100% from where I was Sept 24th.
I was buying hand over fist late Sept and early
Oct, but not a lot since..a few calls then a few puts
and some short term day trades both long and short
on the QQQ..is all I've done since Nov.
The stuff I picked up on the big dip I also
sold calls on, that if the market was to now
sink it could dive 50% and only cost me my paper
gains , my Sept 24th position would still be intact
even with a 50% to 60% drop..
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Now I'm also still holding some cash , as I want to
see what Bushy's new tax cuts will effect.
Shorter term I don't like the spike in Oil prices,
and for my outlook to come true..oil prices will
have to fall, which I think they will.
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So that's it up 18.5 NDX, S&P 12.5% Dow 14% but not
strong enough in my call to bet on it at this time.
And if I do any more yearly bets I'll hedge em with CCs,
other than that it's short term scalps for me.
Jim |
