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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (24082)1/3/2003 5:31:26 AM
From: Steve Lee  Read Replies (1) of 36161
 
Have just seen the Investors Intelligence numbers for 1/1.

Still a lot of bulls. I haven't followed II closely but have referred to it from time to time and it has served well in the past as a contrarian view. Thus it would indicate shorting is in order right now.

However, The Rydex Nova/Ursa ration and the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index are both showing bearish sentiment that verges on extreme. These are generally good for contrarians to follow, particularly the latter index.

The Hulbert index is especially interesting because it tracks newsletter writer sentiment. It was recently at a bullish extreme, as per II as been for some time. But now, like Nova/Ursa, it is showing bearishness.

Have you any idea why the dicergence between the Hulbert index and the II index if they are seemingly measuring the same thing?
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