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Biotech / Medical : Elan Corporation, plc (ELN)

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To: Qualified Opinion who wrote (3810)1/3/2003 9:33:12 AM
From: Harold Engstrom  Read Replies (2) of 10345
 
Your stated expectations are extremely variable - with substantial progress over the past few weeks you have gone from being a true believer to a whole-hearted skeptic. Your citing of statistics has gone from trying to massage them to enhance Elan's attractiveness to create the illusion of bankruptcy and dilution.

What I particularly like are the references to the "SEC overhang and operating losses". Great stuff. I hope you cite R&D losses and operating losses and interest expenses and product payments both separately and together to enhance the perception of weakness.

Next week, when you get religion again, I am looking forward to your citing Dr. Armen's dismissal of the SEC as an issue and your counting many of Elan's equity positions twice - both as part of the EPIL II & III guarantees and as liquifiable assets. Also nice will be the list of approved and pipeline assets and technology assets.

The week after that, I will look forward to hearing about how most of Elan's drugs are facing obsolescence. The Crohn's treatments, the MS remylination treatments, the magic bullets for pain and Huntingtons and alzheimer's. The future is already forfeit! The assets once again will be close to worthless or at least the ones that are sold will have been the true crown jewels and Dr. Armen will have mortgaged the present for a fruitless future.

But lo! Dr. Armen is arisen and the shadows of Antegren and Prialt and Zonegran and Skelaxin fall across the unwell and they rise healed. Wait, no, the cursed side effects...did I say side-effects, I meant treatment features. Hold on: let me check my portfolio for reorientation...
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