jr, imo what did this move more good than anything was a rise in the general markets.
We do not want a general market crash here. I think it would be huge negative.
If one looks closely at what happened last year with PM's and general market, it is clear that PM's topped out well before the worst stages of the general market meltdown. My thought is that this will more than likely repeat this year.
One can presently assume a general market decline will be a 3 of C, a very long and powerful move down. If it has just started, it can be expected to continue until mid year at a minimum. Likewise it is my assumption PM's are in some sort of 3 up, and ahead of the 3 down in the general markets, maybe by a month or even more.
Guess I just gave away my strategy re put shopping. I'm in no hurry, but if things continue on their present course I will be out or very light in PM's before the worst stage of the general market down, assuming things continue as they have, and during the latter stages of the gen market decline be closing out shorts and puts.
Everyone, literally everyone I know, closed out too early last go. If we are in a gen market 3 down, nearly everyone will do the same thing again. |
