Has he taken into consideration that one of the reasons that the naz has gone down THIS much is that it's completely lost a whole lot of companies (thousands according to Zeev and I wouldn't be surprised if he's right)? And since those are gone (poof! lol!) that portion of the index cannot go lower? We're never going to get a lower valuation on At Home, Exodus, Etoys, Webvan, etc, etc, etc. Then there are defectors to other indexes like emulux and acquisitions and mergers which have taken out chuncks of the naz little by little but can't take out more (on those anyway).
Nah, I'm sure market dynamics, who is in and out of the index and other technical matters like that elude these prognosticators. They are looking at one thing, surveys like the one yesterday from Aberdeen that say no capex $ pickup for tech. I have to say it is hard to argue with that.
Zeev is talking about too few companies in the naz now? That is my rallying cry (sic). I was shocked to see that consolidation has us at the same# naz companies as 1981. And even at these levels more consolidation is happening. Forgetting stocks for a moment the ramifications of this to the remaining companies' business is pretty daunting, basically there are whole tech areas that have become virtual monopolies. There are no startups either except google out there. Here's some historical charts on # listed companies marketdata.nasdaq.com
".... Did we have a bear market this severe that followed a mania in 1975 or 1982? I don't recall that happening (not that I was old enough to remember anyway, but I'm certain I would have heard about it) and since they can't compare psychology wise, who is to say how it bottoms and recovers? I DO recall a bull market with volume on the nyse in the sub 200K share range and that was right before the last minimania (1987). All that is required is more buyers than sellers...... no matter what the volume.
Well, shaking out the cobwebs from my highschool/college period, I believe we did have a pretty frothy early adopter PC market in 1983/84 period then a brutal bear in tech starting 1985 for a few years. Apple computer going from 60$/share to like 7$, for some reason I remember that. So nothing like this mkt in terms of a bear of course but a bear in tech nonetheless so froth and bust is nothing new (too bad I didn't remember this fact in 2000). I'm glad there were bull mkts with little volume, didn't know that.
With war pending I don't really see any reasons for new lows, I mean how bad can things get really? But you never know... I'm scaling in to some LTBH tech positions here- my approach is just to pick the worst stocks on the naz and buy! LOL.
Silicon Investor has always had a lot of tech workers and tech people as participants... this outsourcing trend is taking jobs away irrespective of the underlying companies' financial health and the jobs picture in tech is making the sentiment here, on SI completely bearish, imo overly so. The trading threads are amazing with their comparisons to 1930s... I say if this period is like another period it is likely the 70s, but even then things are much better now- one thing about the 70s is there was no emerging business driver of any kind like the internet going on. The leading companies were fast food franchises and consumer staples.
Lizzie |
