Hello Ron, <<… Charles Krauthammer … encourage Japan to acquire nuclear weapons in order to counter N. Korea's threat … get Bejing's attention and have them squash on their client state on the peninsula..>>
Imagine this conversation:
Beijing: N.Korea, put down your nuclear weapons, or I will try to quash you.
N.Korea: Beijing, get off the bus, or I will let loose a refugee flood on you, and when I get really pissed off, I will launch against you.
Beijing: OK, you win.
Now this one:
Beijing: N.Korea, put down your weapons, or Japan will go nuclear and I am afraid.
N.Korea: I am not afraid and I will not put down my arms.
Beijing: OK, you win. Besides, I am also not afraid.
It should be intuitively obvious to the most casual of passing observers riding on horseback that this imbecilic and kindergarten-like Krauthammer tactic cannot work, is not worth a try, and if tried, wouldn't matter anyway.
I think the following Machiavellian thought elements, and when put in amalgamated geo-politic whole … well, let’s see what I come up with:
(1) I believe the US misunderstands China’s influence over N.Korea, believing it to be the equal of the US influence over Mexico or perhaps more naively, Grenada, while in actuality, I believe, it is merely one of (a) if you, N.Korea, are attacked, I will have to do something to secure my position on that front, either by helping you or helping the other side, (b) I helped you last time because the other side refused to talk to me and was in fact gunning for a fight with me, (c) if you pick a fight this time, the other side consists of my two biggest customers (US and Japan) and my top three investors (Taiwan/Hong Kong, followed by US, Japan, S.Korea), so do not pick fight, please;
(2) I think the N.Koreans are nuts, but they logically believe the US will attack them in time, given Bush Axis of Evil and Circularity of Doom speech, and so they did their trump card, (a) we N.Korea got the bomb, (b) we will use it on Japan by rockets, (b) we will use our long range conventional guns on S.Korea, (c) we will use our mini-subs and fishing boats on wherever they can get to, and (d) as demonstrated before, we will do so with barely a warning, as we had kidnapped Japanese with our midnight shore parties, and set off bombs in Burma; (e) the next abracadabra? a rocket that can reach everywhere, and it will be for sale, now, (f) Sam, let’s talk, shall we?
(3) I think the S.Koreans, just as nuts as the N.Koreans, as demonstrated over and again in the field of commerce, in aggregate, care more about unification and N.Koreans than they do about the US and Japan. S.Korea can never be a power onto itself without having achieved unification. The democratic mob of the South wants America out, even as they want reunification with the North, but on the Southern cousin’s terms.
(4) I think Japan will go nuclear in any case, because they of all folks know (a) missile defense cannot work, especially at short warning range, after electro-magnetic pulse does its thing, against an attack designed to foil same defense, (b) the two Koreas will reunite, and when done, S.Korea becomes an instant nuclear power with no enemies to its north but an traditional competitor and a score to settle whenever the democratic mob feels frisky, (c) China will achieve nuclear parity with the US, and then (d) it’s everyone for themselves, the multi-polarity world you so despise. In such a case, it is not clear to me why Japan will naturally side with the US on any subject of concern, except China and Korea, and maybe not even that.
(5) China’s traditional guideline is to do little or nothing about just nearly everything outside of its borders, as matters will go where they will go, guided by the mobs in each and every locale. If global democracy of nuclear weapons possession is what it takes to bring multi-polarity back in style, it is not clear to me why China would be against such a state of affairs. Its protest about Japan rearming is genuine, as China does not have nuclear parity with the US yet.
So, the amalgamated geo-political whole of the above Machiavellian thought elements leads me to believe (a) China will do very little, because it can do very little, (b) S.Korea is rightly scared, but (c) Japan should be more terrified, (d) N.Korea has little to lose, just like the Palestinians, and (d) the key to multi-polarity world is now obvious to all, the bomb, and soon, everyone will want at least 200, along with fishing trawlers able to release mini-subs, and thus the concern of the aircraft carrier group dependent US.
Resolution? I do not know. But again, as the parties spin and turn, twist and shout, zig and zag, much opportunity for investment will make themselves apparent, and the truth will makes themselves obvious. The crisis is of the making of the US and N.Korea, and they, as principals, must make it go away, because no one else is in a position to do much of anything, not Japan, not S.Korea, and certainly not China.
On this matter, not wanting to be accused of being pessimistic, I am optimistic that matters and anti-matters will sort themselves out without mixing too much, but I am at 10.xx% physical and paper gold.
Any down shift in Tokyo and S.Korean market due to war fears dictate an automatic hard buy program, because it will not come to war, and if it does, paper assets will vaporize anyway and gold value increase will more than compensate for any paper loss.
Chugs, Jay |
