Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

AMAT 223.95

+1.7%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (4715)	1/3/2003 9:41:50 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) of 25522

Thanks again for those charts. You could add a horizontal line, on the charts showing bookings. Label it "trough level"; place it at the midpoint of the 1996 and 1998 low-points, somewhere around 700M (it's an approximation, maybe a band between 400M and 900M would be better, to show the limits of our precision). We were at that level for almost all of 2001 (the U rather than the hoped-for V-shaped downturn). Then, we had an upturn........that faded......and now we're right back down to that "trough level" line. The crucial question for those trying to time the cycle (just about all of us) is: will 2003 look like the 96/98 V, or the 2001 U?. If we get another U, with semi-equip bookings staying at these trough levels all year, them current stock prices are a good shorting opportunity. If we are at the bottom of a sharp V, and it's up from here, then today's prices are a buying opportunity. Disclosure: I'm heavily short CYMI at 34.

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