david,
What you say is very logical on the price side, but I don't think Bush would risk the oil flow from Venezuela, and in fact he didn't , that's why the Venezuelan opposition is asking him to stop being ambiguous and take a stand, the best option for a fast, sure and standing in time, return to normal oil flow from Venezuela is a pro USA Democracy.
Even if the strike was over tomorrow, it will take at least a few months to get crude oil production, and refined products exports back to anywhere near normal. Venezuelan crude represents about 9% of US imports, however, about 25% of refined diesel consumed in the south western USA is imported from Venezuela. I expect the US government will be forced to make strategic oil reserves available to US refiners. Also, I doubt OPEC members can quickly increase production enough to offset Venezuela's OPEC quota even if they wanted to. Besides, how would they get that extra production to the US? There isn't sufficient excess tanker capacity available. The idled tankers dedicated to carrying Venezuelan product can't be shifted to the middle east routes without affecting the restart of Venezuelan production.
Another consideration is damage (both economic and physical) to the idled tanker fleets that carry crude and refined products from Venezuela to the US. That is also an unknown. US refining capacity will soon be forced to be idled as well in order to preserve the infrastructure. It takes time and costs money to idle capacity and as much or more to get it started again.....We are living in interesting times. |
