Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

AMAT 223.95

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Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: robert b furman who wrote (4727)	1/4/2003 4:45:35 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) of 25522

<<I've been their in my industry before and believe me - when you get back to lean you vow never to go there again - unless of course the greed of big margins is once again tasted.Then you want more and MORE AND MORE.<VBG> >> That's the classic Prisoner's Dilemma. The GreatestGoodForAll (consistently high margins and high cap. utilization) would be achieved if nobody cheated (added capacity over realistic demand levels). But, inevitably, someone (acting in their own short-term personal interest) cheats. Even when everyone would like the industry to not be so painfully cyclical, and everyone knows exactly what causes overcapacity and low margins, nobody can stop it happening, over and over. Group Solidarity/Discipline has always proved impossible to maintain. If G. added lines to his PureData charts, they would be EditorialComment (=personal bias). For instance, where do you put that median line? IMO, it should be at the midpoint of past cycle peaks, excluding the 2000 Bubble data point. I'd throw the last peak in orders out, as an Outlier, unrepresentative of the general trend.

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