Winter in the Great White North Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Winter in the Great White North

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To: marcos who wrote (3889)	1/4/2003 5:42:30 PM
From: E. Charters	Read Replies (1) of 8273

Socram-tese, if you like surfing look at these waves. www3.sympatico.ca The deep red is the actual price in constant 1997 dollars, the less jagged one down is a 4 point moving average plotted at the 4th point. You should probably plot moving averages at the midway point. The other two smoother waves are, 1) a 15 point moving average of a 9 point moving average of the 4 point moving average plotted in blue --AND-- 2) a ten point least squares trend line of that MA of an MA of a MA plotted in purple with only the first point of the trend line and that run anew from each point. Then the whole trend line is backed up ten points. To start at 0. All MA's were extended back to 0.0 by building them from one point to two points Ma to their max no of points in the MA. Result is a peak to peak line that is accurate re gold's natural swing, (43 years, or 44) but displaced slightly to the right as to its actual real peak. In other words it is oversmoothed and perhaps too down trendy. The trend formula is a spreadsheet linear regression of the Y=mx+B flavour that normally compares two line of data that intervary. In this case we use the years as X and the variance does not matter. What does it mean? Well you see it misses the sharp upswing in gold but the inflexion of the wave is clear. The down trend wave is more or less complete. The actual and of the downtrend or trough would be 2001 or 2002 by calculation. According to this scenario, gold should peak out at about 700 to 1200 dollars by 2018 to 2024, if it does not get fixed by the US in the meantime. Enjoy the Ripples. EC<:-}

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