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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands

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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (19659)1/4/2003 11:39:21 PM
From: PuddleGlum  Read Replies (1) of 57110
 
Your French isn't improving, Jorj, I'm sorry to say.

I stared at charts for a long time today and here's what I come up with:

Bearish case:
The top that we saw at the end of November was very significant, and I've seen nothing yet to clearly negate it. We could rise a few % on the news of Bush's economic plan, but we still have overhead resistance at 1425 on the Naz. $NDX p&f chart looks unhealthy. Now that the holidays are over and it's clear to everybody that the retail sector is teetering, what else is there to hope for?

Bullish case:
My take on the short term is that we have a bounce coming. VIX p&f looks like it has to drop from here, which means that the market goes up (possibly for more than a bounce). Lots of stocks trading for a fraction of book value, so bargains are to be had.

The VIX action leaves me uncomfortable with the puts that I bought on Friday. My timing was poor, and I think that a better entry into puts or calls will present itself over the next few weeks.

Another issue that troubles me is that the listening posts that I pay attention to are quite bearish, which means that the contrary direction is UP.

The more I know the confuseder I become. :-(
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