pete....i already posted my outlook back in early december....heres thoses post.....
Message 18309206
Message 18318214
Message 18321028
Message 18321177
ok.....just to give an update on those post.....
on dec 6 when i made the 100 down 300 up post.....the nasdaq was around 1420's.....
the ramp and dump is a downtrend.....(dump and ramp) is an uptrend.....
so as you can see we ramped and dumped from 1420's to 1327 for the 100 down.....
also....even though that shit for brains lapdog says my settings are wrong...<ggg>....once again my slow and fast sto caught the d-blows to confirm the weakness going into the end of the year.....you see...the lapdog suffers from over analysis paralysis from reading too many text books...when in fact...AV and DB have been strong chart signals since charts began.....you just have to know how to "harvest" them.....and i made many post about that and the guidelines to use within them......and that you won't find in text books....<GGG>
anyway...since i made those early december post.....nothing has really changed....the t-q readings in october that changed the minor trend to bull are still intact because i did not get the reading i needed to see the trend change....
so its still a bull trend within the big bear trend....meaning bull t/a still rules....meaning AV will be stronger and DB weaker.....inverse H&S will rule over plain H&S.....
the SOX is still in a big complex inverse H&S....its first I-HS sent it to the prior 393 high.....now the shoulders in play are the aug 282...oct head 209....and the 285 we just had.....
i said to watch for weekly AV....that is close to forming....if that bites.....theres your 1700-1800 top...
ok....so since all of that is still in play.....and the year just started.....all i can do now is look for things to fail......failed AV or DB is a strong counter signal.....one secret indicator i have says this could drop to even 1270's and all of the above will still be valid for a bull case and higher high above 1521....but that signal happened during options ex so it may be meaningless.....but i'll still watch for it.....
like i said before....from november to feb i concentrate on cheap stocks for bigger % gains.....so i don't really care about whipsaws in the nasdaq as small crap have lives of their own and move in any type market this time of year....
so....my main concern is where the nasdaq is in march-april....because that will be the "big position play of the year" with either a great bottom to buy and hold till june....or a great top to short and hold till the end of the year.....
if weekly AV "bites" and we break that 1521 top....its going to 1700-1800......and we get that march-april top....
if weekly AV fails....and we go below 1270.....a failed AV is a strong counter signal and the drop would be hard for that march-april bottom......
on this chart.....i added some longer range sto's......
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclynay[d20020604,20030104][pc9!c13!c20!d20,2!h.02,.20!c50!c100!c200!c150!b200!c125!c175!b50!f][iLa5,9,4!Lh5,5!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Ll4!Lo14!Lb14!Le5,10,1!Lh89,34!Lh45,17!Li180,68!Li90,34]&pref=G
now if you look at daily....weekly.....monthly NASDAQ..VIX and VXN.....you will see on all those charts and sto's the main theme is nasdaq oversold coming up and AV.... and VIX..VXN d-blows.......thats bullish....
now.....if on those long range sto's that AV "bites".....shorts will be toasted the first few months here......and many will miss a ramp to 1700's....
one more reference that doesn't really mean anything....but since we might be in wartime again.....heres the 90-91 nasdaq.....its good to keep this in mind anyway....
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclynay[d19900404,19910404][pc9!c13!c20!d20,2!h.02,.20!c50!c100!c200!c150!b200!c125!c175!b50!f][iLa5,9,4!Lh5,5!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Ll4!Lo14!Lb14!Le5,10,1!Lh89,34!Lh45,17!Li180,68!Li90,34]&pref=G
you can see a similar drop into october....a ramp into december...a dull december......january ramp-a-thon into march.......
but....this time it would not start a big bull run......many would think if this happened again it would keep going.....but if march-april is that top.....its a long bleed down after that.....because the bubble has not retraced it all yet.....
anyway....for me personally.....i'm just playing the small crap because theres little downside and they would explode if that 1521 top breaks up......i would only short a double top near 1520's with failed AV or my t-q reading for a trend change or a break of 1270...because if that breaks...it will fall hard to a march-april bottom....and if march-april is that top....i'll short and walk away till next fall and enjoy the summer and let the crooks whipsaw the daytraders....<ggg>
so....its early in the new year....nothing is confirmed yet....so if anything changes the trend.....i'll let you know.....otherwise.....i'll just be concentrating on my small crap watchlists looking for the big hits....<gg> |
