Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

AMAT 235.24

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (4740)	1/5/2003 11:31:47 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) of 25522

>> they're running at only 30%-60% of capacity. Jacob, a model that relies on capacity utilization to forecast future demand must also include terms to subtract out wear, obsolescence, and a way to remove mis-located capacity from the available capacity. Cymer, which you had mentioned as a short at 34, said they expected a 20% decline in 4th Q rev (from $84m). bigcharts.marketwatch.com So their sales are not zero, even though there is some over-capacity in some of their products. This question comes up a lot in these discussions. But I don't recall seeing a definitive answer. Sure there was a peak of capacity in year 2000. We want to know when will the equipment that was installed in 2000 be obsolete ? I think half of it will be useless by end of 2003. But I suppose the people who actually work with the equipment can tell us for sure. Where is Stan-X-Long ???? Sarmad

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