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Strategies & Market Trends : Winter in the Great White North
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To: zinc-man who wrote (3895)1/5/2003 3:02:41 PM
From: E. Charters  Read Replies (1) of 8273
 
2018 years smooth. When you factor in the quirks of the sawtooth-wave 8 year offset, that 2018 years becomes 2010. Except under the circumstances that there are rogue waves operating that are hidden.

Remember to evaluate the 37 year valley versus the 43 year peak that seems to operate when smoothing data. Perhaps the valleys and peaks are the same distance apart but offset from symmetrical. In other words their centres are not the same distance from the ends front to back. Another way of saying this is that the peaks may fluctuate independently from the valleys. This could mean that valleys eventually overtake peaks and merge. Or that the difference is illusory as the centres vary first one way then another quickly.

                      ___
       __            /   \__
      /  \__        /       \_____ 
     /      \__    /                  /          \__/                \__
   / 
   0123p567890234v67890p2345678901234v6   
       4         15    21            35


Above if two wave types are overprinted, an interest rate wave and a scarcity wave, then sometimes the peaks will be closer together than the valleys. Above you can see a situation where the peaks are only 6 units from the valleys, but the valleys are 11 to 14 units from the peaks. As well valleys and peaks are either 17 or 20 units apart from the same feature. This cannot persist without changes in amplitude, or rate of change or else peaks or valleys will overtake one the other.

What must be sought is underlying waves that have greater regularity or whose changes are predictable in some way. then the recombination of this data begins to have predictive value.

EC<:-}
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