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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)
AMAT 235.24+4.5%Nov 19 3:59 PM EST
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To: StanX Long who wrote (4753)1/5/2003 8:05:49 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz  Read Replies (1) of 25522
 
>> But I know for a fact that many IC manufactures are stretching the equipment's life to between seven to ten years.

Thanks, Stan. So then we can assume that sales of AMAT, Novellus, etc.... since late 2000 are new models that did not exist in 2000. And the only reason they are being purchased is that the chips made on them cannot be made on the older machines. Even though those machines are idle, or available on eBay for half price.

So the next piece in the puzzle is what portion of chips can be made on 20th century equipment, and what portion needs 21st century technology ?

Is there a breakdown of % of AMAT sales that is capital equip, and % that is service, support and consumables ? Would equip be half ? Has the equipment % shrunk relative to 2000 ?

If there truly was a severe glut of up-to-date equipment, then AMAT should not be able to sell any new machines.

I'll be revealing my ignorance here. But can the chips for new main-stream devices like digital cell phones be made on 3-year old equipment ? How about the wireless network routers ? 2.0+ GH Pentium processors ? 256MB DDR memory ? HD-TV tuners ?

If all these high volume chips can be made on the old machines, then it will be a long time till SCE spending resumes growth.

Sarmad
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