Hi Jay -
Don't have time at present to filter through the thread looking for everything you said which may be of application, but at any rate don't expect you to restate what you have already stated.
>>I do not remember making any bets with you<<
Well, you did not make The Bet with me, and I don't remember if you made any other bets.
>>I do remember vividly and perhaps wrongly<<
My guess is wrongly, because I don't recall predicting anything would happen in any particular quarter, and I would never say "no problem with debt."
My recollection is that my position has been, more or less without waffling, as follows:
1. I don't care whether gold goes up or down, it's a stupid asset and I wouldn't buy it regardless, except as jewelry or dental gold. I don't buy lottery tickets, either. I don't invest in any asset unless I am convinced of its intrinsic worth. The Greater Fool theory is lost on me.
2a. I can't predict the future, but I don't believe we are headed into a replay of the Great Depression based on the information available to me at present.
2b. While I can't predict the future, I expect that US federal government deficit spending will provide an economic stimulus that will act as a counterweight to a lot of the negative stuff we here in the US are seeing at present.
3. I have zero opinion about the stock market.
Check it out and let me know if I am wrong, but I think I've been fairly consistent.
Message 16867337
4. This is a new one - I expect China to start floating its exchange rate within the next decade. Japan does it, the US does it. Come over to the Dark Side.;^)
The only down side is that you (read: Chinese administration) will have to learn to trust us, and vice versa.
And don't piss all over George's shoes about Taiwan, and he won't do the same to you. All this pissing on shoes is childish, anyway. |
