John,
The issue of oil and Middle East policy brings Freud to my mind. To say that US policy is about the supply (or price) of oil reminds me of Freud saying that human motivation is about sex. By the time we get to Dawkins selfish gene theory, it is pretty clear that at a foundational level, human motivation is all about sex. Where Freud gets into trouble is taking the broad principal and applying to the particular human action. The general principal doesn't translate well to specific situations.
Oil is the undeniable foundation of America's engagement with the Middle East. However, it is not helpful to interpret specific actions in terms of the supply of oil. The current American administrations ME policy is all about oil in exactly the same way that Clinton, Bush1.0, Reagan and Carter's policies were all about oil.
Pollack's argument is that Saddam with nuclear weapons could throw the western world into an economic depression by blackmailing the rest of the region into curbing the supply of oil. It gives Saddam an economic weapon that would give him extra-ordinary leverage in the world. Why depend on multilateralism to fix the problem? If the other nations cannot get their mind around the threat or cannot muster the political will to act, why wait for them? Management by committee is no way to handle a crisis.
My point about economic self interest and democratic committment began with the statement 'when percieved in conflict'. I think you missed or ignored it.
I think the inactions of the Bush administration has contributed to a difficult situation getting much, much worse. Apparently, you think those are steps to a better future. I hope you are right; I deeply fear you are wrong.
Arafat has convinced me that he has no intention of negotiating peace with Israel. I believe that this is because his financial backers (Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia, ...) have no interest in peace with Israel. They are quite content with the current situation. Until there is a leader willing to negotiate in good faith it can only be harmful to pretend otherwise. Bush has made it clear that US policy is for a Palestinian state. The next step is cut Arafat's life support systems. I think that a strong American presence in Iraq will begin to persuade Palestine's Arab backers to reconsider their unwillingness to negotiate. However, it won't happen until the US applies enough pain to motivate them to accept the pain of accepting the existance of a secure Israel.
I am glad that Bill Clinton went to the wall to negotiate peace. It exposed Arafat. Now we know what we are dealing with.
Paul |
