Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

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Nov 18 3:59 PM EST

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To: StanX Long who wrote (4753)	1/6/2003 3:47:41 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) of 25522

re: equipment life span My (outsider's) impression is, the lifespan of any given piece of equipment in a fab, is infinitely flexible. If consumers and corporate IT budgets have money to burn, and are all demanding the latest/fastest/biggest, then equip lifespan gets compressed. But in current conditions, corporations and consumers can get by with their current PC/cellphone/server/etc., pretty much indefinitely, which means current installed equip in fabs can satisfy demand indefinitely. Well, with about 500M-1B/month in tech orders (no capacity orders) for semi-equip (1996, 1998, and 2002 trough levels). There is no particular reason that everyone has to replace/upgrade their cellphones every year (rather than every other year), or their PC every 4 years (rather than in 5 or 6 or X years). What I'm saying is, it has nothing to do with the technology, and everything to do with macro economic conditions.

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