Fab-tool execs remain pessimistic for '03
By Mark LaPedus
Semiconductor Business News
(01/06/03 10:46 a.m. EST)
PEBBLE BEACH, Calif.--Despite signs of a possible IC recovery, the chip equipment industry remains in a terrible drought heading into 2003--with little or no relief in sight, according to executives at the Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) here on Sunday (Jan. 5).
Already hit hard by the severe downturn over the last two years, suppliers of semiconductor equipment and materials are still hoping--and praying--for a sustained recovery in 2003. But the well still appears to be dry in terms of orders and profits for vendors--at least in the early part of 2003.
“It's like squeezing blood from a rock,” said Paul McLaughlin, chairman and CEO of Rudolph Technologies Inc., a Flanders, N.J.-based supplier of metrology tools.
And it's also hard to predict if or when the market will improve, McLaughlin said. “My visibility is cloudy,” he told SBN at a reception at the ISS event on Sunday. Sponsored by the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade organization, ISS runs from Jan. 5-8 at Pebble Beach.
There are signs of hope for the industry, however. After a two-year slump, the chip-equipment market is expected to rebound and show 9% growth in 2003 over 2002, according to a new forecast from VLSI Research Inc. of San Jose (see Dec. 4 12 story ).
Others were slight more upbeat. Worldwide wafer fab equipment spending is expected to total $18.5 billion in 2003, a 16% increase from 2002 revenue of $15.9 billion, according to Dataquest Inc. of San Jose (see Dec. 4 12 story ).
There is more good--and bad--news for chip-equipment vendors. Demand for “advanced tools have slowed down, but the discreet guys are coming back,” said Charles Thomas, president and CEO of Solid State Measurements Inc., a Pittsburgh, Penn.-based supplier of metrology equipment.
Others slightly disagreed with that observation. Tool orders for the production of discreets and power semiconductors are picking up right now, confirmed James McKibben, vice president of worldwide sales and marketing for Tegal Corp., a Petaluma, Calif.-based supplier of etchers, sputtering equipment and other systems.
McKibben also sees tool demand for new and cutting-edge applications, especially next-generation nonvolatile memories, such as FeRAMs, MRAMs, and other chip products. Tegal is the leading supplier of etcher for the production of next-generation FeRAMs, he added. |
