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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch
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To: lurqer who wrote (11070)1/6/2003 9:24:12 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) of 89467
 
The Sacred Geometry Of Chance

January 6, 2003
ContraryInvestor.com
Market Observations

The Hidden Law Of A Probable Outcome...Well there you have it. 2002 was indeed the third consecutive down year for the DJIA in many a moon. And just when so many of the Street's highly paid visionary cognoscenti had predicted quite an opposite outcome just twelve short months ago. The Lords and Ladies of the venerable Barron's Roundtable were simply blindsided, now weren't they? And the cacophonous consensus of the Ruykeser elves in the early part of last year once again suggest to us that perhaps the most productive interludes for investment thinking are often spent within the context of silence.

Of course it simply goes without saying that we will now be treated to the roars of Wall and Broad that a fourth consecutive down year is a near impossibility. As you will see in the following chart, there have only been four times in the prior 105 calendar year history of the DJIA that three consecutive down years have occurred. But there has only been one four year consecutive period price decline. And that decline came during 1929 through 1932. A period characterized by economic depression. An economic characterization academically dissimilar to the picture painted by current governmental economic statistics.

Chart of DJIA Annual Price Performance (1897 - 2002)

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