glaxo would have to manufacture it over there.
I thought Aventis was responsible for Dynepo, or did they contract that out to GSK?
There is also (to me) an unclear overhang of unissued shares owed in connection with a 2002 IP settlement.
This isn't unclear. TKTX owes CEGE $15M shares worth of their (TKTX's) stock. When the registration statement becomes active, TKTX has guaranteed that they'll give CEGE more shares of TKTX with the market value of $15M. CEGE will end up owning about 4-5% of the company (i.e. CEGE will end up owning about 1.5M shares). There probably is a dilution concern for TKTX shareholders, as CEGE will probably liquidate in the event of a major TKTX rise or in 2004 when they will really need the cash. There is still a price risk in TKTX stock, as the registration statement has not been announced effective, and thus the $15M is currently toxic.
At 9 bucks, I believe the market has mostly discounted the fact that Replagal is not going to get past the US FDA, and if the FDA gives the orphan status to GENZ, the shares will probably drop to 7 bucks. Otherwise, most of the price risk in TKTX has been cleaned out of the stock. They raised a boatload of cash over the past two years, and if they win the Dynepo appeal, they're up to 15 bucks a share at least.
Last note, if TKTX doesn't get Fabry in the USA, and the stock tanks to 7 bucks a share, it should mark a significant capitulation and I'll get my feet wet with a few shares. The fact is after AMGN and GENZ, nobody is going to ever launch a lawsuit against these guys. |
