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To: GST who wrote (151374)1/6/2003 10:37:21 PM
From: Victor Lazlo  Read Replies (3) of 164684
 
AP Finance News
Analyst: China Facing Economic Crisis

01/06/2003 15:14:10 EST
China is heading toward an economic crisis like the one faced by Southeast Asian nations in the late 1990s because the level of investment there threatens to create a vast surplus capacity, a prominent economist warned on Monday.

"China is at a potential crisis point. The recipient of the most exuberant capital flows is the next candidate for crisis," said Presenjit K. Basu, Singapore-based chief economist at Credit Suisse First Boston Corp., a U.S.-based investment brokerage.

Speaking to nearly 1,000 business leaders from 23 countries at an economic summit here, Basu said investment in China was growing at 15-20 percent a year, creating a huge surplus capacity that threatens to flood the market and drive down prices.

"The over investment by China has reached a level where it cannot be sustained by any economy," said Basu.

In particular, he said China has added to the worldwide glut of manufacturing capacity for high-end semiconductors.

The 1997-98 Asian financial crisis was caused by companies expanding recklessly on borrowed money. When demand fell, companies unable to repay their loans were forced into bankruptcy or drastic restructuring, devastating economies throughout the region.
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