<<contrary thinking is both art and science, but you can't count yourself as a contrarian if your in the bearish camp anymore>>
... you right bobby ... I'm now a bearishnian ... <g>
I was a strong and vibrant bull through the mid and late 90s until January, 2000 ... that's when I seriously turned bearish, although I did not start buying S&P puts until that July.
I remember, one of my closest friends telling me (at the US Grand Prix at Indy in September 2000), "What are you, nuts or something ... you could lose that money (you bought SP puts with)."
He thinks 2003 will be better ... and I agree ... sometimes it will be better - right after equities fall flat on their face again this month and next ... and sometimes it will be worse ... my guess is the secular bear market bottom for this cycle (at the earliest) will be this coming September.
If we rally hard through January, I probably have this whole thing figured wrong.
Trading the ups and downs will be the secret this year ... unfortunately, I still have a lot to learn about trading the ups.
I still see dark times for the U.S. economy ... not as bad as the 1930s, but not happy times.
And I do not think that the problem will be deflation ... it will be debt reconciliation, a serious financial (bank) crisis, more unemployment and eventually a bond disaster (caused by foreign capital exiting the US) and, finally inflation.
I may be wrong, but I think the keys to watch right now are the dollar and gold.
I hope I am wrong ... like most people, I do a lot better in bull markets.
Our saber swinging foreign policy is not helping and will not help in the future ... there are a lot of people around the world who think our foreign policy is real screwy.
Ken Wilson |
