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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (26997)1/7/2003 4:36:51 AM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
<Maurice's vision of USD 2/brl oil will not likely happen.>

Jay, I don't think $2 will happen. The USA government will NOT let that happen. The president's oil industry buddies will be very miserable if oil went so low. They'd go broke. So would the North Sea, and most other offshore oil. New drilling wouldn't be economic other than in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and similarly prolific places.

With Iraq's oil off the market, BP, Shell, Exxon and other oil companies have enjoyed huge profits.

The war in Iraq is about oil. The whole Osama thing arose because of Brezhnev heading for the Indian Ocean via Afghanistan. The middle east oil fields have driven the conflict with Islamic Jihad.

"Weapons of mass destruction" is a crock of nonsense. Avoiding an Islamic Jihad nuclear capability is desirable for all of the nuclear powers [including Pakistan].

But oil prices will fall from their current heights. Substitution will be well underway at these prices. That's not good for OPEC.

Venezuela won't stay a mess forever.

There's heaps of oil around and as Sheik Yamani says, we aren't going to run out of oil, just as we've never run out of stones [but the stone age finished].

The price will rise until competing products or conservation shift the balance. The price is already high enough to move a lot of energy demand to other supplies.

Mqurice
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