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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing

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To: tyc:> who wrote (6680)	1/8/2003 11:34:03 AM
From: Claude Cormier	Read Replies (2) of 39344

<but I'll bet you are NOT shorting the market, because you know it is improbable and it would be a bad bet.> I am. I have some puts options. And I think a 30% drop is highly probable (Dow to 6000). Everything is a question of valuation (P/E, Premiums to book value...) <I said "my gold is the S&P 500". But that doesn't mean that I invest all my assets in the S&P 500, just as you don't invest all your assets in gold (do you ?).> No of course. < I believe in the safety of diversification..Condor's balanced portfolio of assets. > I also agree with diversification. But this doesn't mean that one must be invested at all time in all or most asset classes. Now is not a good time for equities and bonds because interests rates will be going up in the years ahead and GDP will not grow fast enough to sustain current valuations. >However, I avoid cash ! With low interest rate yields I >see its relative price as "bubble-high", (and the current >price of gold reflects just that). It takes all kinds to >make a market ! Cash is certainly bubble-high relative to many assets (commodities, metals, some farmland, woodlands..etc) but, in my humble opinion, it is relatively cheap versus some other class of assets like hot real estate and most still expensive stock equities. I would rather be a seller of these high price assets for cash or gold rather than a buyer.

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