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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: Noel de Leon who wrote (64949)1/8/2003 11:37:34 AM
From: Win Smith  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
The canonical local reference on oil would probably be

The Battle for Energy Dominance
by Edward L. Morse and James Richard
From Foreign Affairs, March/April 2002 foreignaffairs.org

Originally cited in #reply-17069011 , available online at that time but no more. A pithy excerpt somebody extracted at the time:

Even before September 11, concerns had been raised over American reliance on Middle East oil. Global oil demand has been increasing by between 1.5 and 2 mbd each year, a rate of growth with alarming long-term consequences. The U.S. Department of Energy and the International Energy Agency both project that global oil demand could grow from the current 77 mbd to 120 mbd in 20 years, driven by the United States and the emerging markets of South and East Asia. The agencies assume that most of the supply required to meet this demand must come from OPEC, whose production is expected to jump from 28 mbd in 1998 to 60 mbd in 2020. Virtually all of this increase would come from the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia.

That particular clip was sort of contrarian, though, the dominant reaction here was a bunch of rah-rah about how our new buddies the Russians were going to make the Saudis irrelevant.

Edit: Google turns up an alternative source with the full text, brownstone.org , I leave it to the local ambassador from FA to decide if that's ethical or not.
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