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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's

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To: Softechie who wrote (22844)1/8/2003 12:14:14 PM
From: DebtBomb  Read Replies (2) of 30712
 
Elliott Wave theorists track what they call "super-cycles," or sweeping trends that occur rarely. "The last two times the stock market was down four or more years in a row was in the last two super-cycle declines, which is exactly what the current decline is," he says. The previous instance was 1929 to 1932. Before that, stocks fell four straight years from 1837-1841.

Hochberg also goes one better (or worse) on the super-cycle angle. "The decline from the 2000 peak is not only a super-cycle decline, but it is also a decline of one higher degree -- a grand super-cycle."

The last grand super-cycle decline began in 1720. "During this sell-off there were three periods of four or more years of consecutive declines: 1737-1740, 1743-1747 and 1758-1762," he says. Elliott Wave degrees indicate the odds are "high" that investors will suffer a fourth year of declines in 2003.

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