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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Noel de Leon who wrote (64949)	1/8/2003 2:06:51 PM
From: John Carragher	Read Replies (1) of 281500

If I come across something I will publish.. However, you not considering, at all, new ideas. Take for example the hybrid engine now selling for $4000 over a gasoline engine.. They are getting 70 miles to a gallon.. I assume this will pay out over the life of the car... Now if this engine catches on and some minor improvements Gasoline demand will drop quickly.. If prices rise watch the suv go bye the wayside... My point is everyone who has forecasted oil reserves and demand in the 100 years has done a terrible job imo.... Its like forecasting the stock market. g You ignore that most of the electric power generating plants and manufacturing plants were powered by coal... these plants can go back to coal with smoke stack scrubbers etc.. Now they burn natural gas.. a demand that was not there twenty years ago. They went to natural gas because they didn't want to make environmental investments that would cost more to burn coal than natural gas... If the cost of oil rises to a point .. these companies will quickly look at laternatives again.. Just what the Saudis do not want..

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