Speculate on the impact of a surprise win for Shinui. Could the form a coalition? Would it be a new face, new hope scenario? Could they govern?
Who knows? Shinui is a new party, headed by a TV host, Tommy Lapid, running on an anti-haredi, capitalist program. Imshin says the mostly leftie media is hysterically trying to discredit him (for comparison, just imagine the NYT's coverage of a Rush Limbaugh run on a third-party ticket), but cited the article below as being more sensible than most. According to the latest polls, Shinui ranks third, behind Likud and Labor.
The messiah from Popolitika
By Yoel Marcus
Yosef (Tommy) Lapid leaped into politics straight from the TV talk show, Popolitika. Morphing overnight from a wiseguy who never missed an opportunity for shtick when he was on screen, to the head of the Shinui party in the Knesset, he didn't always know the boundary between TV stardom and his duty as an elected politician. Even putting him at the top of the party list was a gimmick. He became a political curiosity. Witty, with a big mouth, it was hard to tell when he was being provocative just for the fun of it, and when he was voicing his real opinions.
In any case, it was obvious that as head of a party with six MKs, free of any great responsibility for running state affairs, with a job that fell into his lap by a stroke of luck, he enjoyed every minute of it. When he felt like it, he played the racist, and when he felt like it, he played the liberal. But most of all, he fought tooth-and-nail against the dictatorship of the Haredim. To his credit, let it be said that throughout his political career, he has stood by his promise not to sit in a government with Shas.
A curiosity? Fine and dandy. But one morning, Lapid woke up and discovered that he was being taken seriously. Under Lapid, Shinui became the Western Wall of national protest in the span of two months. Granted, surveys are only surveys, but with a leap from 6 to 15 mandates, it looks like Lapid may be head of the third-largest party in the 16th Knesset. Maybe even second largest, considering how badly Labor is doing.
Shinui, unlike the other parties, has no surveys of its own ("no money"). But Labor's biggest nightmare is 19 mandates up against Shinui with 17. The figure is based on Shinui being shored up by votes from the center, of blessed memory - some from disappointed ex-Likudniks who can't bring themselves to vote Labor. These are votes of protest over the state of affairs in this country, over the corruption in the Likud. They will come from people who don't believe that Mitzna is capable of changing things. For them, Shinui could be a way station. It depends a lot on which way Lapid decides to go when the scent of power reaches his nostrils.
Israel, if anyone needs reminding, has reached one of the most difficult junctures in its history, in every sphere. But the anger has not yet stuck to Sharon, the Teflon man. The heads of the Likud just love to portray our wretchedness as national fortitude. The real truth is that we are in a state of trauma, expressed in the totally incomprehensible way we resign ourselves to living in a tunnel where there is nothing at the end but darkness. The infiltration of organized crime into the Knesset and institutions of government via the Likud has also pushed some Likudniks into the arms of Shinui.
Labor is stuck on the runway for a whole host of reasons. First of all, until two months ago, it was Sharon's submissive partner, and hence no less responsible for the catastrophe we are facing today. Secondly, Lapid has more to offer in the tip of his fingernail than Mitzna has in his whole body. True, Mitzna says the right things, but the charisma is not exactly popping out of him. He doesn't have that "killer instinct," as Barak used to say. If Labor crawls back to a unity government, smaller and more compliant than before, it may vanish from the map altogether as a ruling party.
With things as they are, especially the military and economic situation, the anger of the voters will be poured out on the injustice of a Haredi minority dictating how the country should be run without doing their fair share, and the injustice of the middle class being turned into a doormat, carrying most of the burden in every sphere. Because these are the two main issues etched on Lapid's banner, if Shinui doubles its strength then this may be a solid enough basis to attract more voters who are screaming to the high heavens that they are sick of it all.
Lapid is quick on the uptake: he knows he's got a potent weapon in his hands. He has toned down the way he says no. He has stopped being picky about with whom he will sit and with whom he won't. He is for a road map and a Palestinian state; he is for withdrawal from the territories on the strength of an agreement and national consensus; he can even envisage the Tal Law being implemented, gradually and in stages. Shinui is not about to be the Democratic Movement for Change of 2003. This party's historic mission in 1977 was to topple the Labor government. At the moment, it doesn't look like Likud is going to get what it deserves, which is the boot.
Shinui, if it keeps growing, may have an impact on the structure and policy of the government-to-be: Likud, Labor and Shinui, minus the Haredim. If Lapid measures his steps carefully, he may become a national legend: a messiah who arrives not on a donkey but straight from Popolitika, and secular, too.
haaretzdaily.com |
