"correct me if I am wrong"......
Ok, let me try this.
I haven't followed the SI rambus thread in years, because of the amazing self-serving, time-wasting sewage spewing from all corners. You quote Bilow, but he is held in disrepute by some, and considered a fabricator, going back to 1999. I personally don't know the truth of this, but would certainly take any comments very cautiously.
"Rambus is a pure speculaton with odds that are not favorable".
yes and no. Rambus is speculative, based in large part on hope and future returns. The delay in the emergence of RDRAM and foot-dragging thru the courts has incurred a tremendous "opportunity cost" for Rambus and its shareholders, and is reflected in the low share value.
However, the longterm contract with Intel in conjunction with the facts that Rambus is relatively debt-free, has low overhead, and generates earnings gives it a book value of about $3-4/share. It presently sells for about 2x book value. The downside appears to me to be low.
RDRAM is found in HDTV (an expanding market, just starting), EMC storage devices, Cisco/Juniper networking equipment, gaming devices, etc. I have seen no hard evidence that Intel is abandoning RDRAM, and do not know what superior memory standard you would consider for near future chips running at 5-10 ghz.
Above all, Rambus seems to be an innovative company that concentrates on chip-to-chip efficiencies in communication. It is not just a "memory" company. The shortterm has been disappointing, but I think the upsides could be very rewarding over the very longterm.
Therefore, I continue to believe the upside is far greater than the downside. I have retained all of my Rambus shares. If it gets back down to $5/share, I'll probably be a buyer on the strength of the Sony news and a speculative future. If there is any good news, court-wise, then I would be a buyer up to $15-20/share. If Intel announces an advanced chipset beyond the 850 for future generations of Pentiums, that takes RDRAM, then I would be a buyer on that information, too. My layman's understanding is that the old 850, with RDRAM, continues to be superior to any other chipset and Intel has not had to come out with anything additional for the present.
That's how I see it. So overall, Rambus is speculative, but I think the upside is way greater than the downside.
apollo |
