The thing that surprises me, given, again what you've put here and others, is that Labor has gained as much as this from Likud's losses. If I recall from these readings correctly, Labor had 26 seats. If they are at 24 and climbing now, they could basically stay even
I'd be more inclined to believe Yediot's figure of 22 mandates for Labor than Ha'aretz' of 24. But the situation is volatile and I have no idea how it will play out in the end. My take, fwiw, is that support for Likud-the-party is very volatile (they sure haven't done themselves any favors lately) but that support for Sharon as PM will hold in the end, because I think most Israelis trust Sharon to put Israel's interests ahead of his own, and there isn't any other politician they feel that way about right now. But to support Sharon, you have to vote Likud.
I've felt that the failure of the hardline tactics to reduce suicide bombing would reduce Likud votes sometime. Just hard to tell when
I don't get any sense, not the least, that this dynamic is at play, except among those who were pro-Meretz or Labor to begin with. And an awful lot of people who used to vote Labor will vote for Shinui or Likud or one of the small parties, like Yisrael B'Aliyah. |
