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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 77.38-0.5%3:59 PM EST
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To: willcousa who wrote (62666)1/9/2003 8:16:14 PM
From: RetiredNow  Read Replies (2) of 77400
 
I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but if you were to assign probabilities of it happening in the next 5 years, here'd be my guess:
* 60% chance Cisco keeps it's dominant market position in the segments Dell and Huawei are attacking and they fail to make serious strides
* 35% chance Dell or Huawei make serious strides against Cisco in terms of market share, but still are minority players after 5 years, very similar to the market position Juniper now enjoys in the router segment
* 5% chance Dell or Huawei dethrones Cisco and overtakes Cisco in terms of market share in the segments they are attacking

So to sum up, that's a 95% chance that Cisco won't sweat it too much in the next 5 years. Now that is reality as I see it folks. I've been watchin Cisco pummel the competition since 1995 and have watched them become even stronger, leaner, and more fierce over the last 3 years. Dell may very well have met a competitor they can't vanquish. My gut tells me Dell can become a player, but they won't dethrone Cisco in this decade. Furthermore, my gut tells me that if Huawei makes serious progress, it will be illegally through patent infringement and cloning of Cisco products. You have to look no further than Microsoft to see how much trouble they have had in controlling the pirates in China and Hong Kong.

Anyway, those are my thoughts.
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