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Pastimes : Q&A on SI's New Feature: Investor Sentiment
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To: Cage Rattler who wrote (48)1/10/2003 11:51:48 AM
From: Cosmo Daisey  Read Replies (1) of 82
 
Dear Ted,
Predicting future stock price doesn't work very well in an imperfect market. To attain a perfect market everyone would have the same information at the same time and stocks would trade unchanged until fundamentals changed followed by the price. We have a perfect trading system however. The only value that is valid is the last trade. If someone can predict the next trade that would be cutting edge. Prof. Einstein was working on a theory that would have predictive value and was trying to enlist the help of Prof. John Nash who wouldn't share his work with him. Einstein's market theory didn't work. Watch a real time quote of any stock and try to predict the next trade. Even with the benefit of seeing bid/ask it still is a random market. Yesterdays price has no meaning, tomorrows price can't be predicted, money management is the only thing that works. Except of course "perfect information"
cdaisey@princeton.edu
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