Welcome back, Jeffrey,
Still following ARDM loosely. Pursuant to the boilerplate I posted eons ago (to which this post refers), Novo has in fact purchased its second block of ARDM stock in the middle $4 range; apparently the condition was initiation of PIII. There was even some insider buying. However, that PIII is going to take two years, so another 18 months or so until we hear anything on that front (we could ask IR if there will be an interim analysis). I would expect news before then on another product, but when, who knows.
I like RIGL, but am concerned it has not joined the rally. If Mr. Market does a war splut, RIGL may go under $1 and face delisting concerns. Also like AFFX; waiting for under $23 to nibble, under $20 to really load.
The headline in the San Diego Union Tribune (which I saw walking by a vending box on my way to fetch bagels) said "Inspection Team finds no smoking gun." UK is looking wobbly on supporting the war effort, and of course the rest of the world is against it. I'm thinking that if we go in now to beat the heat, terrorists will think themselves very justified in doing more 9/11ish type things. Even Bush has to realize this risk. I was in your camp regarding the certainty of war until recently; now I'm not so sure.
I think this concept may be what is helping the markets, for the moment. The crash will be bad if it does happen, then, and there will be plenty of time to catch the trend with shorts. EXPE comes to mind. In biotech, I've been watching VXGN (but can't get shares), CHIR (over $41), AGIX (over $7.30, but I haven't researched that one sufficiently), and AGEN (in the high $11s; woke up late the other day and missed my chance) for shorting. Or one could try the Peter Suzman method of shorting the biotech index and going long favorite stocks.
What are you watching these days?
Cheers, Tuck |
