What is the analysis of why Bush didn't follow the prescribed course?
Clinton, Netanyahu, Rove, Powell.
First, this admin came in with a deep visceral aversion to anything identified with Clinton. Few things were so identified as much as diplomatic activism in search of a negotiated peace in the ME, so any suggestions along those lines were pretty much dead on arrival. (This applies to Korea as well, of couse)
Second, many of administration's key foreign policy personnel hated the Oslo process as much they hated Clinton, believing it was all a trap or a giant delusion. They felt the breakdown of the process and the subsequent intifada was not an accident but inherent from the beginning, and identified strongly with the Likud view of appropriate ME policy, typified by Netanyahu in particular. (A version of this applies to Korea as well, of course, substituting Agreed Framework for Oslo.) This also worked against any kind of renewed activism, since the Likud government didn't want it.
Third, it turns out that in recent years the evangelical Christian right, a key part of the administration's political base, has become more catholic than the pope--or rather more kosher than the Rebbe. The combination of rich Jews, smart loud verbal punditry Jews, and conservative Christians yielded a powerfuldomestic political constituency opposed to any activism that pressured Israel to do anything at all it didn't want to do. This brought Karl Rove into the picture as a force behind the scenes helping to keep activism off the agenda.
And finally, Powell, ever the cautious diplomat, had no interest in tying himself to this tar baby because it didn't seem to promise any results in the short term. Early on he remarked to someone I know, "I think we'll just park this [policy] where it is." The person replied, "you can't park on such a steep hill," but Powell wasn't convinced and didn't fight too hard inside the admin for what his bureaucratic subordinates wanted.
in other words, a lack of activism was pretty much overdetermined from the start...
:0)
tb@analystsRus.com |
