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Technology Stocks : Silicon Graphics, Inc. (SGI)
SGI 92.66-0.6%Dec 2 3:59 PM EST

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To: Jojo Mosko who wrote (1996)7/26/1997 10:13:00 AM
From: Jeff Maresh   of 14451
 
Hey Jojo - Do you remember last quarter's lovefest?
What is was really like last quarter at this time
Hysteria at it's best! Post numbers are in [] in case you want to read the context. It starts when earnings were announced. I found it to be humorous but more importantly, a lesson in how bad things can get at the bottom thus indicating a POTENTIAL buy opportunity for tech stocks in the future. I read Ken Fisher's Super Stock book where he discusses these kinds of things happening but it was kind of fun to be prepared and experience it for myself. I nearly tripled my position in the few days following the last announcement and I know many of you folks out here did the same.

this is bloody brilliant - is it not?
where is everybody's analysis now?
analyse, people, analyse! [1048]

This stock has dropped into an abyss. By my way of thinking I believe the company
needs salvation through a takeover. The price is attractive. Maybe IBM or Sun will
bite. [1049]

It seems it's dropped further ('tumbled') in after-hourse
trading. i'm dreading tomorrow.
what they need is to bid ta-ta to Ed M-crack-his-nuts. [1050]

If only I had sold the stock in January! It looks to me like we won't see much
movement in the stock now for another couple of quarters.
The question is, will it get better soon, or should I just bail out of SGI at the soonest
available time?[1056]

the backlog store is there for 2 quarters, the promise is broken again ang again. i
believed the management once and lost money, glad i am out this time.. [1068]

I got flame, from a guy at Alias, for that same analogy a year ago. I think this company
is head down. Rumors is that the silicon partner NEC is considering dropping SGI.
Once that happens the MTI division is doomed and SGI will continue suffer short term
problems. [1070]

The analogies with Apple and perhaps Informix are overwhelming. Even after
management has done a terrible job again, people on this thread are still talking
technology. Great products with poor vision for marketing and
competition always fail because marketing and perception are more important. YOU
CANNOT IGNORE Microsoft AND Intel! I'm going to try to average down for a
short term bounce, then I'm gone. [1079]

I have no idea what to do with this dog anymore. While the increase in sales from
quarter to quarter is always a lure, the same amount (if not greater) of increase in
expenses simply shows poor management skills derived from Mr. McCracken. SGI
simply is in the same boat now as IFMX, SHVA, and perhaps AAPL (they're doing
something now). Ed simply has to think about restructuring the company to trim costs
as well as increasing market share of their products (oxymoron?). All this talk about
backlog is now making me sick as current results are what's @ stake. In order to
make Wall Street happy, sometimes a replacement of the CEO is the best remedy for
a sick dog like this. Do me a favor Mr. McCracken, for once, think about your
shareholders and stop parading about more acquistions to inflate sales, you moron
(didn't they teach you about efficiency and synergistic relationships @ HP?)....
Feeling a little bitter about SGI (should've shorted this), [1084]

Your right, CNBC has maintained coverage this morning on this dog as well as all the
other various trades and it's around 14 right now, which is a 4-year low. [1085]

What is the downside low for this stock? I tried to buy SGI
at $10.125 this a.m. before the open. It's at $14/share.
I bidded for 14,000 shares. [1086]

Which got the following reply:
That's funny, I tried to get 14 dollars for a ten dollar bill today,
but nobody would do it. What's wrong with people? [1097]

Anyone in for wagers of when Ed will last? [1087]

Al, management has been a disaster. The purchase of Cray has been the downfall of
the company. I figure if ya chop off Cray, the rest of SGI has been growing at close to
20% a year. Thats not bad and I figure that a bunch of trained apes should be able to
adjust expenses enough so as to make money and keep the analysts happy. [1088]

True, Cray Research just doesn't have that 'synergy' relationship that SGI was
expecting when it paid god knows what (comparisons to Quaker buying Snapple,
anyone?). [1089]

I just hope there's a takeover soon. Price is attractive. [1091]

I agree 100% now, Ed McCracken should be dumped. I just noticed another
executive jumped ship from SGI, the head of 'business planning.' I'm in at 22 on this
stock and am just praying for one good quarter so I can bail out.
I can only pray they hit the low 20's before they report shitty earnings for next quarter..
They really need to change management, and maybe put a fence up around their
facility, so the employees can't walk across the street to watch movies every
afternoon... what's up with that? [1094]

I really, really, want Ed
McCracken to be ousted from the BOD. In the meantime, I would hope to expect that
Ed will be addressing the near-term future of the company's ability to survive as I'm
sure everyone agrees that if the price continues to drop, it is definitely a cheap target
for a takeover candidate (Sun, you still interested?)... [1098]

Well it hit 12+ change at close! I was shopping around and thought
"maybe SGI - its cheap at 17" but DEC is 3x cheaper on PSR so I passed. [1100]

Want to but afraid to buy. The stock is trading below its four year low, no support
seen so far. With cray hanging over them like a bad omen perhaps the stock is headed
lower may be 8-10 range. Who will take over this piece of old garbage ? The best bet
will be to auction it off to the highest bidder that may relieve and lift the stock. [1109]

Don't buy now. I talked to some engineers in the company. Their opinion is the
stock will be in the single digit by next month. Watch out, when companies go down like
this the best and the brightest leave. SGI will begin to experience this soon. It happen
at AAPL when the stock went down. [1110]

Heck I heard that shipments were delayed this quarter due to a shortage of sheet metal! [1118]

This was the last straw for most funds. The sad truth is that this company is selling the
products, but they can't seem to make them. Is this sloppily run? Yes, without a doubt. [1119]

A shortage of sheet metal sounds like poor management to me; surely SOMEBODY
has sheet metal for sale! [1120]

Wow, what a terrible mess. I got a bad feeling a few weeks ago when I read the
recent copy of Byte (May 1997, page 108) and saw that in their tests of intranet
servers, the Origin had finished just about dead last, and was one of the most
expensive! Ed McCrackin finds growth in the server market "encouraging." I think that
slow, expensive servers do not sound encouraging, and I had hoped this would be a
bright spot in the speadsheet. I guess any hopes of significant revenue from Nintendo
64 are gone too. [1121]

In fact, Jim Clark was in business week shortly after leaving SGI. He did not have
encouraging words. These were all early warning signals. Of course this is 20/20
hindsight. [1123]

Given the (painful) slide of 4.125 on Friday, I took the time this morning
to poor over SGI's recent financials in the same manner I treat a new
investment; something I have not done with SGI since the purchase of
MIPS [nothing like an 8K drop in one's portfolio to get your
attention]. [1129]

Don't you believe it. At this point, no Cray technology has made its way into any
shipping SGI products, despite the occasional use of the Cray trademark on some of
the new stuff. [1138]

It has become fairly obvious. McCracken is gutting the company for his personal
benefit. If he pays enough people outrageous prices for worthless purchases, he will
end up on a half dozen boards of directors as a returned favor. SGI tanks, but
McCracken sails high. Haven't you ever wondered about why people are asked to join
boards when all they have done is led a multinational down the ... [1180]

Does the world need supercomputers? Does the world need the best computers in the
world? Who are you going to call? [1188]

The concern I would have now is that the management team has no
experience with bad time. Remember this team was responsible for the ten fold
increase during good time. It takes special skills to solve problems when thing don't go
well. This reminds me of Convergent,Daisy,Amdahl. [1192]

Jim Clark (SGI's founder & founder of Netscape) spoke this week and suggested that
McCracken might lose his job this week. [1196]

CNBC says INTC to move into the video games business in direct competition with
SGI. They will gang several MX200 processors together. This will be announced at
some video games conference next week. [1219]

Hi Michael - Its safe for you SGIers to all come back now. Everybody who was
hysterical has probably jumped off tall buildings at this point. :-) I've got a shopping list
for you... [1232]
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