>>And yet, as CB and ACF would note, growth is 2-3+%, productivity is rising, and lots of folks are getting jobs, there is no banking problem.....so, therefore, everything must be just fine<<
Yes.
>>as we drop past the 18th floor ledge, powered by gravity<<
As to this, I have no idea where you get it - perhaps from the mind-bending effects of experiencing the mainland-ization of Hong Kong first hand.
The 1990-1991 recession was worse than the one we have just experienced, with higher unemployment, higher white collar job losses and a so-called "jobless recovery" that dragged on into 1994.
And yes, as you point out, the banking system is in far better shape than it was a decade ago, mortgage delinquencies, foreclosures and consumer credit charge-offs are about where you'd expect at this point in a slow recovery.
The enormous prop under the US economy is boomer demand - that's why consumer spending has held up so well - without a collapse in aggregate demand there will not be - can not be - the kind of economic collapse the doomsters have been forecasting for two years now.
There is no reason to expect anything other than what is the de facto highest probability outcome for 2003 - slow economic recovery and a shift in investor psychology that will at some point drive the equities markets sharply higher. At this point the zombies will desert gold and $350.00 gold will be seen for what it is - a zombie-driven spike on the inexorable path to $250.00 and lower. |
