For some reason, I think we will go right to the brink of war, maybe even send in some sorties to hit Iraqi air defense, then back off in return for more extensive sanctions and a greater U.N. presence.
One big reason is Venezuela gives Iraq a lot of leverage - just cutting off Iraq's oil will send the price way up. If Iraq manages to hit other oil fields, and Kuwait is easy for them to reach, it could put prices way over $40/bbl. for about a year, which might push the world and the U.S. into a recession/ depression.
That situation, namely a world wide recession, would increase the leverage of another nut case, namely Kim Jong-Il. By attacking South Korea conventionally, this would create a hugh distruption in trade, especially electronics and auto parts, shutting down industries in Japan, Taiwan, China, the U.S., and Europe.
This fall, Venezuela is producing, North Korea bought off / pressured to back off, and we can deal with Saddam. It is unlikely he is very close to any NEW WMD at this time. |
