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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity
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To: energyplay who wrote (18457)1/10/2003 10:37:41 PM
From: quehubo  Read Replies (2) of 23153
 
Energyplay - I tend to agree that we wont be entering Iraq this quarter. Venezuela's lack of export for at least 8-16 weeks after the strike is cancelled is to much of a economic risk to the world. I read articles about sabotage and the problems from shutting down fields that support assertions that VZ wont recover 100% of the prestrike production ever and the recoverable will take many months.

That said if Bush could be 100% sure that he could restore 100% of Iraq's production within several weeks and that no other interruptions would occur, oil should not be an issue. But he cannot be sure that Saddam has not booby trapped all of the production facilities or the export of oil would not be hindered in any way.

Waiting until the Fall also provides time to build a better case against Saddam.

Of course who would expect EOG DVN to slide down with the NG future strip where it is.
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