I hope everyone tuned in to "Nightline" tonight, it was absolutely frightening. A hypothetical scenario , with side branches, was worked through by a general and a policy wonk as the 'USA' while an expert on Korea and an American professor for Korean Studies, he himself of Korean extraction, acted as the NK decision makers.
It went something like this:
US: starts building up navel forces, stations planes in SK and Japan, troop buildups. Decision made that if NK attempts to move any Pu, the facility would be destroyed to prevent it..
NK: Sees buildup, learns of PU attack plan, moves the PU anyway (NK always acts with defiance)
US: destroys the facility as planned.
NK: Immediately shells and rockets Soul, completely destroying it with conventional, chemical, bio weapons. Perhaps 500,000 to 2 million Korean deaths with American causalties in the tens of thousands. NK would try to make all ports of entry inaccessible by using bio and chem weapons. They think the Americans cannot stomach the carnage and will sue for a cease fire.
US: US constantly talking with the Chinese and Russians to keep them out of it.. US launches heavy attacks against NK forces around the DMZ and at other NK facilities. Huindreds of thousands, even a million, NK troops killed. Argument develops in US over the decision to use tactical nuclear weapons -- the use of them would likely bring in China and/or Russia.
NK will constantly wag a finger at us claiming that 'the US started it'.
NK will most likely NOT invade Seoul because SK and the US have prepared for exactly that for fifty years. NK will simply blow the city up and contaminate much of the southern peninsula.
The Korean Peninsula, north and south, at this point, a day or so later, is drowning in the blood of 1-2 million dead.
NK may also use medium range rockets to drop warheads on American bases and upon cities in Japan further driving up the causalties.
NK may even try to drop a long range ballistic missile or two with possibly nuclear warheads on Alaska or Hawaii.
At this point we have a very, very, VERY bad situation.
All panelists agreed the US and SK would prevail but it would likely take 2-6 months of active combat and another year for mop up with with perhaps 5 million deaths.
There is a mind boggling risk here and it could start tomorrow or next week or next month or who knows...
I do agree with the panelists, they agree that NK is NOT Iraq -- totally different threat situation.
Oh yes, and even the Chinese are afraid that NK missiles may be aimed at Bejing if tChina fails to support NK as 'required'.
--fl@stunnedandworried.com
EDIT:
- Don't forget, if we start pulling out our troops, (for protection) NK will see it as a sign we are going to attack.
- Don't forget, NK said today that ANY UN sanction will be considered an act of war. |
