Biotech Short Candidates Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Short Candidates

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To: tuck who wrote (302)	1/11/2003 12:36:48 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) of 897

Short ideas? Not a biotech but i do consider MRK a better short than long at his price (60$/share). Merck has a lot of issues (Vioxx, Medco) but the main thing is Zocor, the 6.7B$ drug which patents will expire in a few years (2007?). Looking at MRK's pipeline they will be a in big big trouble to replace this revenue, not even speaking of growth. I think an SGP like implosion is quite possible. 2007 seems like a few years out but i hear that in Europe the patents expire earlier. I also think that the investors are more aware of the damage that a patent expiration can do. Zocor is now one of MRK's great growth engines and could have 10B$ revenues by then. I am aware of Zetia but MRK has to share the revenues of Zetia with SGP. If not an straight short, MRK would at least be a good hedge against long positions in pharma stocks, IMO. P.S: I do like your short in CHIR.

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