re. HELE: Small company and I have almost guessed they should have saturated their niche by now. But profits just roll in (weak pun) and margins are pretty decent. If they can continue their performance, stock might easily sell for 15x $1.25-$1.30 their '03 estimate, or about $19/sh ---which would still be a nice gain from today's price, a bit under $14.
By one of my criteria for determining value, that $19 is the very top price I'd buy at if I could assume profits could continue at same good rate in future as in past. I'm too new to the stock though, and I don't have that comfort level yet.
I'm with you in that I don't want to chase on this spike. I'd guess the stock might soon drop to 13 or maybe below on profit taking. (Aside: And of course, as you might surmise from my posts this morning, I will not be among those taking short term profits, because to me, the stock is still not fairly valued.) If the stock does drop though in the next week or so, I'll consider adding more.
-with a K:
Imo, you should go with your brain and not your stomach. You did the extensive dd. You did place it high on your Best Ideas List. Perhaps you might benefit from my tactic of sometimes taking on a small position, an exploratory position to test waters, to see how you feel and think about the stock after you own it, to bet just a little bit on yourself for doing the work and having the stock become one of your best ideas.
Creating occasional or routine exploratory positions is one venue your brain can use to help you to keep your other side - your stomach - from growling at you and sapping your intellectual analysis and judgmental skills.
jmo, and of course,
I'm wrong many, many times
Paul. |
