<<<Unless they have got the Chinese, Indians and we little fractals in Hobbitville, figured into their wave functions, they are going to miss by a mile>>
I understand your drift and I agree, but thinking along these lines will ultimately change the world as most thought they knew it. Or, the end of the world as we had known it;0)>
Jay, we should not be surprised by surprises. Outlying events are normal. All of existence is a single, instantaneous, never to be repeated, experiment. Most events are tiny but there's a range of them up to very large and the very large are not all that far apart in human lifetime terms.
Humans, by our nature from eons-long evolution and relative stasis in our surroundings, are designed and conditioned to expect statis, cycles, and return to the mean. That's false. DNA has never returned to the mean - it has been a never-ending story of increasing coiling of increasing mindfulness in our DNA and memes, with more of us playing the game.
The universe is teleological, not static and not repeating, other than in a narrow sense. There is not really ever a return to the mean.
So, now the fun part = predicting said circumstances. Since everything stems from the present state, it should be a doddle. But somehow, the infinite number of variables overwhelms the most sophisticated computers, let alone our tiny brains, so it's prediction on a wing and a prayer.
It's not surprising that different people predict different things. Since predictions themselves vary the future, it makes it a kind of battle of wills and predictions.
<The surge in kiwi dollar is due to what:0?>
Oversold condition 2.5 years ago. Panic by US$ holders recently. Well-performing NZ economy for years [having recovered after a decade of turbulence following 1987]. Higher interest rates than US$. Somebody is wanting to annoy me.
Mqurice |
