Plus there are fundamental issues at play like the cash levels these companies have that are causing shorts to misfire. Your prognositications would require the nasdaq to trade at 1/4 cash or thereabouts. It could happen but only if there is a depression/breadlines I would say. Anyway keep shorting if thats what you believe, thats what makes a market.
At some point new money comes in, from different investors. Naz 500 is probaly fair value. It might not get there.
You talk about cash value, but have ignored debt. Ignored the fact that there is no profit, ignored the fact that there is no demand for goods without tremendous rebates (look at cars, furnature etc etc), ignored the fact that we are in a deflationary spiral with China and are losing jobs left and right, ignoring mammoth pension fund deficits.
That said, we can rally 35% this year for all I know. I just doubt it. Over the long haul stocks return to the mean. Look at a chart of the DOW for christs sake, hardly even corrected. The S&P is about 3-4 times bear market bottoms in terms of PE. Everyone thinks this is a "tech problem" and that their stuff is safe. Well the S&P is about as overvalued as it was at the top with the deflationary, profitless recovery we are having and will continue to have because oif jobs lost to China, excessive capacity, lack of demand, consumers that are tapped out, and housing that is in a bubble. Have I left anything out? Yes, balance of trade and a deficit simply are not supportable.
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