<FONT COLOR=RED>A MODEST PROPOSAL...OR TWO...OR THREE...OR.... DO PLEASE FEEL FREE TO ADD TO THE LIST.
1. What if inteL is unable to leapfrog AMD this time for an unacceptably (for inteL) long time? inteL always has in the past. It seems to be an immutable law of nature that it will. BUT, this time may be different.
2. Given a possibly very predictable change in the role of ram (once the manifold [does this mean that it comes attached to a carburetor?] possibilities are realized), will the nature of "benchmarks" have to change since they may, in their current forms, no longer truly reflect computer performance in the user's real world. (Can this new set of roles for ram, in some embodiments, turn into the most elegant alternative to multi-threading ?) The cost per gigabyte of ram is now coming down so fast that it is now destined to take on a totally new role in computing technology. We are only a few evolutionary refinements away from being able to load all that may reside on a computer's hard drives and any other "hard" storage into hundreds of gig's of addressable ram. Having such enormous, broadly affordable, addressable flat memory space (what a mouthful) will certainly revolutionize how we think of and use computers...once again; but this time far more profoundly. This set of facts and projections is not lost on AMD (or inteL for that matter [HEY...another reason for all of those insider sales over there at inteL]). AMD's advancements in the memory bandwidth arena is, though broad in application, probably aimed most at this set of capabilities.
3. Mobile Athlon64: AMD is unlikely to exploit this early on so inteL will likely still be able to pay its bills with its very extensive lines of mobile CPU offerings. However, when AMD's Athlon64 based mobile offering comes to the market, it may be so far ahead of anything that inteL can offer that a low power slow version will still be faster than anything that inteL can compete with. SOOO, inteL will be unable to pay many bills from the proceeds from this arena.
4. (This really does follow on #1) If inteL falls far enough behind for an extended period (as I think that they will), there may be at least two sets related consequences. a) inteL, which has never had to play "catch up" from way behind will not be able to gear up technically for the task. The event may be so devastating to iT's corporate ego that some of the consequences may result from self fulfilling prophecies. b) Though AMD has had to fall back to a "lean and mean" posture in order to survive numerous times, this is not a family of skills and capabilities that inteL has or can gracefully gear up for. inteL, in my notso humble opinion (remember [from my Member Profile]: "Humility is only a virtue if it is neither earned nor deserved; but, all too often, it is both.") inteL as a corporate entity is so "FAT" and top heavy that it cannot nimbly adjust to the challenges that it may face in the near future. If it has to cut back, not having a real experience, with survival oriented cutbacks (previous cutbacks have all been aimed at preserving earnings and have been relatively shallow), it will probably be more inclined to cut into muscle than what I would identify as fat. The reasons behind this logic is intricate but it derives from the nature of the entrenched corporate present and the fact that paper generators and pushers who have risen in the ranks over the company's history, are more likely to fire productive ("dooer") subordinates than themselves (DUH!!). Carried to the extreme that is a good deal less than unlikely, inteL will first experience a severe drain on it cash reserves. Reacting too late it may implode only to restructure into a mere skeleton of its former self. What does this mean for AMD common? AMD, exploiting markets without significant competition in its face, will have healthy margins in all of its markets may grow to the near trillion dollar market capitalization entity that inteL once aspired to become. Remember guys (and gals) you did hear it first here.
(GOLLY, WHAT A STRETCH? WHAT HAVE I BEEN SMOKING? OH! WELL! IT WAS A VERY NICE DAY DREAM WHILE IT LASTED!)
re: "I do own a little stock" Good grief man! It is time to get a second and third mortgage on the house and buy the stock on margin. I am actually only kidding. Though I suspect that AMD common may represent an opportunity that one only gets once or twice in a lifetime, I also believe that greed can be and often is any investor's (speculator's) undoing. Never, never put more into a speculation (and regardless of how positive I feel, AMD really is no better than a speculation.) than you can afford to lose 100% of . However, you might want to add a few "pennies" worth of AMD common to your holdings before too long (like yesterday man).
I am sure someone must have some comments or something to add. PLEASE DO!
Optimistic (as ever) Regards,
DARBES |
