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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 681.86

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (38812)	1/12/2003 9:57:51 AM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) of 69343

Hi Harry: I sold elx and brcd last week (the only two storage stocks I played for a jan bounce). I may reenter if brcd breaks its 50 ema and elx looks ready to break its recent high. elx can run to the low 30's and brcd to mid 7's. [i'm wondering if i'm falling into the trap of trading when i should now become a ltb&h type. I listened to both qlgc & elx cc's last qtr and they didn't change this qtr estimates or full fiscal years, but the targets were set to exceed, both update guidance for year with this call (qlgc -3, elx - 6)] IMO storage will do quite well this year. BRCD, MCDTA, QLGC in switches (but with csco now a competitor it will take share so they will not do as well as if csco was not in the space), qlgc & elx with the hba's [the risk being if the hba's become inbeded into switches or storage hardware, I think not yet do to the software but this is just a wild assed guess on my part. Still plenty of upgrades to 2 gig FC rolling out. VRTS and EMC should do fine. JNIC continues to lose market share to qlgc and elx. cross currents on economy and market. dammed if i know what will happen. I worry about iraq situation with market, we invade its a jolt and the stimilus plan actually should help in the recovery (short term 6 to 18 months, long term who knows). I still vividly remember the nikki chart from 89 to 2002. the peak from around 40,000 down to 15,000 and then a 50%bounce up towards 22/23,000 which was started from a gov't stimulus package then back to 15 back to 22 then down to current levels. Are we now going to start a 50% retreace of the naz losses? brings us towards 3000. elx can hit 75 or higher if were going to 3000.

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